PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: Oct 7, 2026

Week Validity: Oct 08-14, 2026

Week 1: Forecast Precipitation (mm)

•75 - 150 mm over Bukidnon, Agusan del Sur, and most of Davao Region;

•50 - 75 mm over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most parts of Bicol Region, Central & Western Visayas, and Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over the rest of the country.

Probability of Exceeding 50mm

•High to very high over Polillo Isl., and most areas of Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over the northern section of Bicol Region, Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, NIR, most of Central Visayas, and the western section of Zamboanga Peninsula and SOCCSKARGEN;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao;

•Low over the rest of Luzon.

Probability of Exceeding 100mm

•Moderate to high over portion of Davao Oriental;

•Low to moderate over Bukidnon, and portions of Agusan del Sur, Davao del Norte and Davao de Oro;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: Oct 7, 2026

Week Validity: Oct 08-14, 2026

2m Temperature Week 1: Oct 08-14, 2026

•Slightly warmer to warmer-than-usual conditions over most of Luzon (except Bicol Region), NIR and the western section of Mindanao;

•Near to slightly warmer conditions over the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: Oct 7, 2026

Week Validity: Oct 08-14, 2026

Northeast wind flow will likely affect Northern Luzon and some areas in Eastern Luzon, south to southwesterly wind flow affecting some areas in Mindanao.

Initial Condition: Oct 7, 2026

Week Validity: Oct 15-21, 2026

Week 2: Forecast Precipitation (mm)

•50 - 75 mm over Cagayan, and most of Mindanao;

•<50 mm over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•

•High to very high over most parts of Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over the rest of the country.

Probability of Exceeding 50mm

•Moderate to high most parts of Mindanao except Misamis Oriental and Caraga;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: Oct 7, 2026

Week Validity: Oct 15-21, 2026

2m Temperature Week 2: Oct 15-21, 2026

•Slightly warmer to warmer-than-usual conditions over most of Luzon and the northern section of Eastern Visayas;

•Near to slightly warmer conditions over the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: Oct 7, 2026

Week Validity: Oct 15-21, 2026

Northeast wind flow will likely affect Northern Luzon and some areas in Eastern Luzon.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: October 03, 2026

Week Validity: Oct 04-10, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some areas of above normal rainfall in Zamboanga Peninsula, and Sarangani.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon, Zamboanga Peninsula, and northern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: October 03, 2026

Week Validity: Oct 11-17, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in southern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, and Cebu where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Cebu, and Misamis Oriental where above normal rainfall is expected.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: October 03, 2026

Week Validity: Oct 18-31, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some areas of below normal rainfall in Visayas.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in southern Luzon and southern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

10 Days

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: October 03, 2026

Week Validity: Oct 04-12, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some areas of above normal rainfall in Zamboanga Peninsula, and Sarangani.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Isabela, Mindoro, southern Palawan, Zamboanga Peninsula, and southern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Mindoro, some areas in Bicol Region, eastern Visayas and western Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected. .